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6

Lagon Bleu

5yo Gelding · 10-10

Auteuil · Prix Meli Melo Chase · 2m 1f 87y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

61%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Angers 16/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m198y Hvy 14516/02C?C0 @ Toulouse 09/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m1f87y Gd 1549/03C?C0 @ Pau 16/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m198y Ver 14716/12C?3 @ Pau 23/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m2f195y Hvy 15023/013projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-23Pau31st2nd−1
2025-12-16Pau?2nd2nd0
2025-03-09Toulouse?1st1st0
2025-02-16Angers?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/029/0316/1223/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/02/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
09/03/20251st1/297%100%+0.03
16/12/20252nd9/488%90%+0.02
23/01/20261st1/195%100%+0.05