Le Rouge Est Mis

5yo Gelding · 11-2

Auteuil · Prix Meli Melo Chase · 2m 1f 87y

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼1

Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C1.1

Today: 2

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-05-26	Auteuil	1	2nd	1st	+1	9.4
2026-05-02	Auteuil	1	5th	4th	+1	6.4
2026-04-13	Auteuil	2	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-03-23	Compiegne	1	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2025-11-29	Auteuil	?			0	5.0
2025-11-05	Auteuil	?			+1	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/03/2025	3rd	7/4	91%	75%	-0.16
07/05/2025	7th	4/1	79%	45%	-0.33
13/09/2025	1st	8/1	58%	100%	+0.42
23/03/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
13/04/2026	7th	11/2	71%	25%	-0.46
02/05/2026	5th	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
26/05/2026	2nd	17/2	55%	86%	+0.30