5
Loke Roman Tavel
5yo Gelding · 10-12
Auteuil · Prix Meli Melo Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Toulouse | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Toulouse | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Pau | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Nantes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/09/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |