9
Neverchangedoctor
5yo Gelding · 10-7
Auteuil · Prix Meli Melo Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Auteuil | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-04-22 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-03-24 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 02/03/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 24/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 22/04/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/05/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.25 |