3
Oak Creek
9yo Gelding · 11-4
Auteuil · Prix Villez Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 85y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | BHA119 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Compiegne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Pau | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-01-12 | Wincanton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2023 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 22/02/2023 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 22/11/2023 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 12/01/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 94% | +0.68 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 76% | -0.06 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |