2
Le Roi David
7yo Gelding · 10-11
Auteuil · Prix Claude Le Lorrain - Joseph Audon Listed Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 85y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Auteuil | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Auteuil | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 44% | -0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |