2
Arditamente
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 63
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 17% | -0.78 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |