8
Bramwell
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |