4
Tidbit
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 54
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 14/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |