5
Trotter
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 66
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-12-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-10-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/06/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 16/07/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 07/08/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 31/10/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 05/12/2024 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |