6
Whatarewedoing
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 79
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-01 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-02 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 02/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 8/11 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |