5
False Witness
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 50
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |