Kaylee's Fireball
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 32
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 7.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-28 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/03/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/08/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |