3
Kelsey Hill Girl
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/11/2025 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 9% | -0.59 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 18/09/2026 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |