Lilys Back
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 61
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 01/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |