8
Role's Mischief
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 38
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-29 | Charles Town | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +31.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |