Ashes And Diamonds
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |