Click
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 71
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 14/03/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/09/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |