Getting After It

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-31	Ellis Park	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2025-04-06	Keeneland	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2025-03-22	Turfway Park	BHA88	9th	11th	−1	1.0
2025-03-07	Turfway Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2025-02-07	Turfway Park	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength16%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/11/2024	3rd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
07/02/2025	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
07/03/2025	2nd	13/2	66%	88%	+0.22
22/03/2025	9th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
06/04/2025	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
31/07/2026	8th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
08/09/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11