7
Lexi's Melody
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |