Miss Bourbon
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-24 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 20/07/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 24/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |