2
Mustang Lady
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |