4
Vinno Ronnie
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |