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4

Banishing

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 113

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Lukas Classic Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Charles Town 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 1m1f Fas 121 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 116 par23/08C?OR 116C0 @ Churchill Downs 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 112 · 1m1f 125 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 112 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 114 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 114 par1/11C?OR 114C5 @ Oaklawn Park 13/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 111 · 6f 124 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 111 parC0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 114 · 1m1f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 114 par24/01C?OR 114C0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 111 · 1m Fas 126 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 111 · 7f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 111 par2/05C?OR 111C5 @ Ellis Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 110 · 6f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Charles Town 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 109 · 1m1f Fas 124 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 109 par29/08C?OR 109projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Charles Town?2nd2nd0
2026-07-18Ellis Park?1st6th−4
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?11th11th+0
2026-03-28Meydan?1st1st0
2026-01-24Gulfstream?6th6th+0
2025-12-13Oaklawn Park?2nd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0813/122/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength84%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
27/09/20253rd3/184%67%-0.18
01/11/202512th20/10%15%+0.15
13/12/20252nd6/594%83%-0.10
24/01/20266th16/116%55%+0.39
28/03/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
02/05/202611th20/10%0%0.00
18/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
29/08/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10