7
Chunk Of Gold
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 111
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Lukas Classic Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 03/05/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/7 | 99% | 50% | -0.49 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |