2
Dragoon Guard
5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 111
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Lukas Classic Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 83% | -0.15 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/7 | 97% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |