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This Is Uscar

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 113

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Lukas Classic Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Lone Star 26/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 113 · 1m Slo 122 · beat its mark26/05/2025 · OR 113 par26/05C1OR 113C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 110 · 1m70y Fas 125 · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 110 parC5 @ Ellis Park 10/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 114 · 1m 122 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 114 par10/08C5OR 114C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 113 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 113 parC5 @ Keeneland 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 115 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 115 par18/10C5OR 115C5 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 116 · 1m 121 · below its mark30/11/2025 · OR 116 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 112 · 7f110y 122 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 112 par28/04C6OR 112C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 113 · 1m110y 122 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 113 parC5 @ Ellis Park 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 112 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 112 par9/08C5OR 112projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Ellis Park?2nd7th−4
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?1st7th−5
2026-04-28Churchill Downs?4th10th−5
2025-11-30Churchill Downs?3rd8th−4
2025-10-18Keeneland?5th11th−5
2025-09-28Churchill Downs?2nd8th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0528/0928/049/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/20252nd20/10%89%+0.89
05/07/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
10/08/20253rd5/287%50%-0.37
28/09/20252nd4/179%80%+0.01
18/10/20255th9/153%56%+0.03
30/11/20253rd4/179%80%+0.01
28/04/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
28/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
09/08/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20