IvyArcIvyArc
3

Tiztastic

4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 113

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Lukas Classic Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Oaklawn Park 23/02/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 103 · 1m110y Fas 119 · beat its mark23/02/2025 · OR 103 par23/02C?OR 103C0 @ Fair Grounds 22/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 101 · 1m1f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark22/03/2025 · OR 101 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 100 · 1m2f Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 100 par3/05C?OR 100C0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 101 · 1m1f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 101 parC1 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 105 · 1m2f110y 120 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 105 par30/08C1OR 105C5 @ Keeneland 16/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 107 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 107 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 1m1f 122 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 103 par9/05C6OR 103C0 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 101 · 1m2f Fas 124 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 101 parC0 @ Saratoga 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 106 · 1m1f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 106 par8/08C?OR 106projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Saratoga?5th5th+0
2026-07-04Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-05-09Churchill Downs?1st7th−5
2026-04-16Keeneland?8th14th−5
2025-08-30Kentucky Downs?10th10th−0
2025-08-02Saratoga?9th9th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/022/089/058/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20255th6/168%67%-0.02
22/03/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
03/05/202510th25/10%50%+0.50
02/08/20259th33/10%0%0.00
30/08/202510th20/10%18%+0.18
16/04/20268th14/126%0%-0.26
09/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/07/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27
08/08/20265th50/10%33%+0.33