Calamity
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |