Ceniza Pampa
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-02-01 | San Isidro | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-12-14 | San Isidro | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2024-08-11 | San Isidro | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 29/06/2024 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/07/2024 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 11/08/2024 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 14/12/2024 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 01/02/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |