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9

Hereforagoodtime

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 104

Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today:
Class gap: +3.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 02/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark02/03/2025 · OR 77 par2/03C6OR 77C6 @ Keeneland 07/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 1m1f Gd 120 · beat its mark07/04/2025 · OR 79 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 08/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 91 par8/05C6OR 91C1 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 92 · 1m1f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 92 parC1 @ Ellis Park 03/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 101 · 1m1f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 101 par3/08C1OR 101C1 @ Kentucky Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 100 · 1m2f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 100 parC1 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m3f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 105 par15/11C1OR 105C6 @ Churchill Downs 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 104 · 1m3f Fm 122 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 104 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 104 · 1m1f Fm 122 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 104 par26/06C6OR 104projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-05-15Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2025-11-15Aqueduct?7th1st+5
2025-09-10Kentucky Downs?3rd-3th+5
2025-08-03Ellis Park?2nd-4th+5
2025-05-31Churchill Downs?3rd-3th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0331/0515/1126/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20253rd9/488%82%-0.06
07/04/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
08/05/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
31/05/20253rd9/276%75%-0.01
03/08/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
10/09/20253rd12/137%82%+0.45
15/11/20257th14/126%14%-0.12
15/05/20265th10/382%50%-0.32
26/06/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08