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6

Mambo Queen

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 93

Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Laurel Park 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 84 · 1m1f Fm 123 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 84 par24/10C8OR 84C5 @ Laurel Park 15/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m1f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Fair Grounds 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 94 par26/12C5OR 94C5 @ Fair Grounds 22/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 91 parC8 @ Fair Grounds 01/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fm 121 · beat its mark01/03/2026 · OR 87 par1/03C8OR 87C5 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 85 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 85 par16/05C5OR 85C5 @ Colonial Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m4f Fm 122 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 90 par29/08C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-26Colonial Downs?1st0th+1
2026-05-16Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-04-18Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-03-01Fair Grounds?1st3rd−2
2026-01-22Fair Grounds?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1022/0116/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength51%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
15/11/20258th8/158%22%-0.36
26/12/20254th5/174%63%-0.11
22/01/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
01/03/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
18/04/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
16/05/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
26/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
29/08/20264th15/261%57%-0.03