One Sweet Girl
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA92 | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |