Reining Flowers
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 97
Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2025-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 14/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 10/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 24/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |