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Royal Justice

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 92

Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 1m Fas 121 · beat its mark29/10/2024 · OR 55 par29/10C6OR 55C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m70y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/11/2024 · OR 54 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 65 par8/05C5OR 65C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m Fm 122C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m70y Fas 12430/07C?C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 82 parC6 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m2f 120 · beat its mark21/12/2025 · OR 83 par21/12C6OR 83C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 1m 121 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 83 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m110y Gd 12626/08C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-07-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2025-12-21Turfway Park?2nd2nd0
2025-09-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2025-07-30Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0
2025-07-05Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/105/0721/1226/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/10/20241st11/271%100%+0.29
14/11/20242nd25/10%91%+0.91
08/05/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
05/07/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
30/07/20259th3/184%27%-0.57
16/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
21/12/20252nd16/116%86%+0.70
29/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
26/08/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03