Snipsnippitysnip
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |