3
Sol D'oro
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 100
Churchill Downs · Race 11 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |