Coach Cronin
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 110
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |