4
Cool Cowboy
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 14/09/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |