Defending Albert
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-01-23 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-10-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 23/01/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |