Gardiner
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 10/11 | 95% | 14% | -0.81 |