Margin Of Air
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 21/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |