5
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7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/7
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |