IvyArcIvyArc
8

Task Force O

3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 75

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 19/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS19/10C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 20/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 80 · 1m Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 80 par20/11C6OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-20Churchill Downs?8th5th+3
2025-10-19Keeneland?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1020/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength91%

Delivery trend -15.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20257th25/10%45%+0.45
20/11/20258th25/10%30%+0.30