Cinister Cix
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 102
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 21/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |