IvyArcIvyArc
6

Utopian

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Churchill Downs 16/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 88 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 88 par16/11C7OR 88C5 @ Fair Grounds 27/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 88 parC7 @ Fair Grounds 31/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 85 par31/01C7OR 85C8 @ Turfway Park 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 76 · 6f110y 125 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 76 parC6 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 6f 126 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 82 par21/03C6OR 82C5 @ Keeneland 17/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 87 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 22/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 91 · 1m 124 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 91 par22/05C7OR 91C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 88 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 88 par30/07C8OR 88projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd6th−3
2026-06-29Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-22Churchill Downs?6th8th−2
2026-04-17Keeneland?6th6th0
2026-03-21Turfway Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-02-28Turfway Park?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1128/0222/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -7.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/20259th50/10%20%+0.20
27/12/20255th25/10%43%+0.43
31/01/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
28/02/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
21/03/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
17/04/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
22/05/20266th5/287%17%-0.70
29/06/20264th15/890%50%-0.40
30/07/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09