Zap D'etat
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |