2
Angel Bella
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |