1
Lady Law
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |