7
Lobby Rendezvous
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/11/2024 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 08/02/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 04/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |